UFC 93 Picks

I thought I would keep track of my fight picks this year. Posting them here will keep me honest.

UFC 93 Dublin, Ireland
January 17, 2009

Undercard
Honestly, I’m not familiar with most of the fighters on this undercard (and I’m too lazy to look them up), so most of my picks are merely guesses. I think that a lot of these guys are probably from the UK or Ireland.

155 lbs.- Dennis Siver 12-6-0 vs. Nate Mohr 8-5-0
I’m picking Siver TKO in round 2. I know nothing about these fighters and the only reason I pick Siver is that he has a few more fights and a better record. It’s just a guess, and I’ll be lucky if I’m right.

170 lbs.- Tom Egan 4-0-0 vs. John Hathaway 10-0-0
Hathaway sub. In round 3. Another guess for the same reason as the previous pick. Even though both fighters are undefeated, Hathaway has more fights.

205 lbs.- Tomasz Drwal 14-2-0 vs. Ivan Serati 10-2-0
Drwal KO in 1st. Drwal wins because of more fights. KO because Serati’s face looks beat-up.

205 lbs.-Eric Schafer 12-3-2 vs. Antonio Mendes 14-3-0
Ok, I know who these guys are. Eric Shafer by decision. Shafer beat up Houston “The Assassin” Alexander in his last fight. Both Mendes and Alexander were ko’d severely by Thiago Silva. I pick Shafer because he won his last fight decisively, and he hasn’t lost to Thiago Silva (though he probably would).

170 lbs.- Martin Kampmann 13-2-0 vs. Alexandre Barros 13-5-0
Kampmann TKO in round 1. Kampman is a badass. This is his first fight at welterweight after seeing quite a bit of success at middleweight. He probably would still be up at 185 if he hadn’t been the victim of a 1st round knockout in his last fight at the hands of serious middleweight contender Nathan Marquart, (which is nothing to be all that ashamed of). Up until his bout with Marquart, the native Dane was on a respectable 9 fight streak, 8 of which were finishes. Kampmann has his own serious knockout power, and even though I know nothing about Barros, I think a large 170 lb. Kampmann will be starting a strong run with this fight for a shot at the welterweight belt in a deep division.

Main Card

170 lbs.- Marcus Davis 20-5-0 vs. Chris Lytle 36-16-4
Davis by decision. I’m taking no risks when I predict that these two will stand and bang and will get the fight of the night if the main event doesn’t. No surprises here. Both gatekeepers have ground skills but prefer to keep it to crowd-pleasing fisticuffs. The fight will probably be exciting but kind of boring at the same time, only because I’m pretty sure of what will happen. Why not get the fight of the night bonus? They both will most likely never get a title shot, but know how to put on a fight people like to watch. Even though Lytle is very solid, Davis is more explosive and that will impress the judges. Besides the “Irish Hand-grenade”, erm, “Celtic Warrior” is more popular in on the Isles.

185 lbs.- Jeremy Horn 88-18-5 vs. Rousimar Palhares 17-2-0
Palhares submission in round 2. This fight will most likely be a strategic grappling match. No disrespect to Horn. I mean, he had a hundred fights before he turned 30. That deserves all kinds of respect…but his time is done and Palhares has just begun. Horn hasn’t looked good in a long time and the young Palhares has amazing Jiu-Jitsu. He sub’ed verteran fighter Ivan Salaverry easily early in the 1st round at UFC 84. Salaverry retired directly afterward. Palhares’ nickname should be changed to “The Retirer”, because I have a feeling Horn will be done after this one and go on to a decent career coaching, or at the most fighting on small shows against Dean Lister. I don’t think the UFC will give him another fight.

185 lbs.- Alan Belcher 12-4-0 vs. Denis Kang 31-10-1
Kang TKO in the 3rd. I’ve never seen Kang fight, but I’ve heard a lot of hype. This is his UFC coming-out party after years of fighting in places like Japan and Korea. Belcher is no joke, though. This may be the wildcard fight of the night. There’s no telling. From what I hear, Kang is incredible but has lost a couple recent ones that he really shouldn’t have. Belcher is coming off a split-decision battle with Ed Herman. (I thought Herman won, but I’m from Portland.) The talk is that the plan is to build Kang up for a title shot against the one and only, number one pound-for-pound, UFC Middleweight Champ Anderson “The Spider” Silva, who is utterly indestructible. Silva has cleaned out the division and has no one left to fight who’s worth a darn that he hasn’t already beaten. To keep the champ entertained, the company has to bring fresh blood with a reputation in, otherwise he’ll demand to move up to Light Heavyweight and take that division over, too. But this is about Belcher and Kang. I’m going with Kang based on hype. I’m hoping for a good fight.

The Co-Main Event
205 lbs.- Mark Coleman 15-8-0 vs. Mauricio Rua 16-3-0
Rua sub 1st. I just don’t know about this one. It’s a big money fight. Coleman is a hall-of-famer and a legend, but kind of old. “Shogun” Rua could become one of the greatest of all time, but has had some serious injuries. There’s bad blood between the two… I just don’t know.

The Main Event
205 lbs.- Rich Franklin 26-3-0 vs. Dan Henderson 23-7-0
Henderson TKO in the 3rd round, ground and pound. Before I start, I have to make something clear. I love Dan Henderson. It’s a complete man-crush. I want to be him in so many ways. Ok, that’s out of the way. This is a fight that many fans of the sport have wanted for a long time. It’s inevitable, and if it weren’t for the fact that they both peaked while fighting for separate promotions, I would wonder why it hasn’t happened sooner. This is a high-quality fight between two men who know the sport. Anderson Silva is the only reason neither one of these fighters are the Middleweight champ. There’s Silva then these two guys, then everyone else in the division. I won’t go into the decorations both men have held or their accomplishments outside of MMA. Supposedly, the winner will coach the U.S. team against popular middleweight Michael Bisping and the UK team for the next installment of the “Ultimate Fighter” reality show. (Bisping might as well dig his grave if the plan is to fight either of these guys.) Franklin vs. Henderson is a tough fight to pick. This will be the Fight of the Night. They are so evenly matched… Franklin may show more finesse on the feet, but Hendo has extremely heavy hands. Franklin has great Jiu-Jitsu, but Henderson is a world-class wrestler. Both are intelligent fighters, Franklin may be a little more so. I think think the difference in this fight will be natural toughness, which has to go to Dan. He has a solid chin that has been tested by the very best. He’s never been knocked out. Franklin on the other hand, has been knocked out twice, albeit by Silva. Even though Franklin is a little bigger, I think Henderson will eventually take Rich down and pound him out. He will then go on to Coach on the “Ultimate Fighter”, destroy Bisping, and then probably lose to Anderson Silva again. If nothing else, how can you not love a man who comes out to fight to Red Rider.

Fight of the Night-Franklin vs. Henderson
Knock Out of the Night-Denis Kang
Submission of the Night-Rousimar Palhares

So how this works is sometime after the event I’ll get around to figuring out my average of win picks. I will give myself a bonus point for every finish I call and every round I call. I will also give myself a bonus point if I get the Fight, Knock Out, or Submission of the Night right. I’ll post my score after I tally it all up. The goal is to see how well I’ve done at the end of the year. Once I’ve posted my picks, they’re set and I can’t change them, unless a fight gets cancelled for some reason. Check out sherdog.com for more in case you're interested. That's where I go.